Bleacher Report's Expert Week 18 NFL Picks (2024)

We bring in the new year with our final NFL picks for the 2023 regular season. Bring on the Week 18 betting chaos, and, of course, wager responsibly.

Because of lineup uncertainties across the league, specifically with quarterbacks, we've seen odds for several games shift over the past 48 hours.

Yet our crew feels confident in their picks with an aim to finish the season with a bang. They love several favorites this week, though the panel came to a consensus on a few underdogs who can pull off minor upsets.

Before we get to our selections, take a look at the season standings (against the spread and straight up) going into Week 18.

We have leaders who could coast to the No. 1 spot before playoff picks next week, but they cannot ease up on the competition with a potentially unpredictable week ahead.

ATS Standings

1. Gagnon: 141-110-5

2. Hanford 137-114-5

3. Moton: 134-117-5

4. Davenport: 131-120-5

5. Knox: 129-122-5

6. O'Donnell: 125-126-5

7. Sobleski: 124-127-5

Consensus picks: 136-115-5

SU Standings

1. Hanford 170-86

2. Moton: 163-93

3. Knox: 162-94

4. Gagnon: 158-98

T-5. O'Donnell: 155-101

T-5. Davenport: 155-101

7. Sobleski: 151-105

Consensus picks: 164-92

Lines are from DraftKings as of Thursday, Jan. 4, at 4 p.m. ET. Check the latest lines at DraftKings. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.

The Pittsburgh Steelers will come into this game as favorites because the Baltimore Ravens, who are the top seed in the AFC, will rest starters for Week 18. In the ninth spot, the Steelers can sneak into the postseason through the backdoor with some help.

On Saturday, the Steelers will see Tyler Huntley instead of MVP candidate Lamar Jackson under center for the Ravens.

Hanford and our entire crew think Pittsburgh should be able to beat the Ravens' backups by a comfortable margin.

"We've seen this one before. Last year, the Steelers beat a Ravens team that rested its starters in the final week," Hanford said. "With the No. 1 seed in the AFC locked up, Baltimore should do the same again here, and that should be enough for Pittsburgh to get a decisive victory.

"The Steelers need some help to clinch a playoff berth, but Mason Rudolph has breathed life into the offense. George Pickens is showing how talented he is, and the running game is surging after a huge performance against Seattle.

"It's still hard to imagine the Steelers can make any noise if they do make the postseason, but they'll do their part here to see if they can squeak in."

Predictions

Davenport: Steelers

Gagnon: Steelers

Hanford: Steelers

Knox: Steelers

Moton: Steelers

O'Donnell: Steelers

Sobleski: Steelers

ATS Consensus: Steelers -3.5

SU Consensus: Steelers

Score Prediction: Steelers 23, Ravens 17

You won't see backups in this matchup. The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts will battle in a game that could be for the AFC South title if the Jacksonville Jaguars lose to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Even if the Jaguars prevail, the winner of this matchup will clinch a playoff spot.

Before anyone realized how good Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud would become as a rookie, the Colts beat the Texans 31-20 in Week 2.

Most of our panel expects Houston to get revenge in Indianapolis, but Sobleski has a different perspective.

"Initial gut reaction leans toward the Texans with C.J. Stroud back in the lineup. It appears that's how everyone else among B/R's pickers feels," Sobleski noted.

"The Colts continue to find a way, though. It's easy to write off Indianapolis because of the injuries and overreliance on youth at certain positions. It ran Houston off the field last time, but that's when rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson scored two rushing touchdowns before the Texans knew what happened.

"However, a different key from that game should be taken into consideration: The Colts sacked Stroud six times in the first meeting. The Indianapolis defense remains in the top five in sacks, while Houston is a little banged up along the offensive line."

Predictions

Davenport: Texans

Gagnon: Texans

Hanford: Texans

Knox: Texans

Moton: Texans

O'Donnell: Texans

Sobleski: Colts

ATS Consensus: Texans -1.5

SU Consensus: Texans

Score Prediction: Texans 27, Colts 24

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a second chance to clinch the NFC South crown. They'll go on the road to play the league's worst team, which puts them in an advantageous position.

Don't worry about quarterback Baker Mayfield's sore ribs. Head coach Todd Bowles told reporters that his starting quarterback will be ready to take the field on Sunday.

Moton doesn't see Carolina in a spoiler role here; he expects the Buccaneers to run all over the Panthers' weak interior defensive front.

"Last week, the Buccaneers failed to clinch the NFC South title in a loss to the New Orleans Saints, but they won't squander another opportunity to pave the way for a home playoff game in a matchup with the two-win Panthers," Moton said.

"The Buccaneers can take some pressure off Mayfield, who has a rib injury, with a commitment to the ground attack in a matchup against the Panthers' 23rd-ranked run defense that's allowed the most rushing touchdowns (25) going into the last week of the season.

"Running back Rachaad White will finish with his third 100-plus-yard rushing performance of the season to help the Buccaneers win back-to-back division titles."

Predictions

Davenport: Buccaneers

Gagnon: Buccaneers

Hanford: Buccaneers

Knox: Buccaneers

Moton: Buccaneers

O'Donnell: Buccaneers

Sobleski: Buccaneers

ATS Consensus: Buccaneers -5.5

SU Consensus: Buccaneers

Score Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Panthers 13

The Jacksonville Jaguars could stumble their way into the postseason with a win over the Tennessee Titans. Over the last six weeks, they're 1-4 SU and ATS.

Yet our panel trusts Jacksonville to get its act together with a playoff spot at stake. Also, note that Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence could return to action after he missed last week's game. He's on the injury report with right shoulder and left finger injuries.

While most of our crew sided with the Jaguars to win by at least a touchdown, Knox thinks we'll see a feisty Titans squad cover the spread.

"I'm sure I'm the outlier here, and I probably should be. The Jags can win the AFC South with a victory, while the Titans have absolutely nothing to play for. However, I can't envision Mike Vrabel allowing his squad to simply give up with an opportunity to play spoiler on the docket.

"Simply put, I just don't trust Jacksonville to cover here. Trevor Lawrence won't be at 100 percent if he can even play, and the Jags pass defense has been atrocious against teams not named Carolina.

"Tennessee's Ryan Tannehill may be in for the injured Will Levis (ankle/foot), and I just have a feeling that he's going to go out swinging in what will likely be his final game as a Titan. The Jags won by 20 in the last meeting, but I think this one will be much, much closer."

Predictions

Davenport: Jaguars

Gagnon: Jaguars

Hanford: Jaguars

Knox: Titans

Moton: Jaguars

O'Donnell: Jaguars

Sobleski: Jaguars

ATS Consensus: Jaguars -5.5

SU Consensus: Jaguars

Score Prediction: Jaguars 22, Titans 14

The Detroit Lions will go into the playoffs as the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the NFC. Though the Lions cannot significantly improve or hurt their standing in the postseason bracket, head coach Dan Campbell will play his starters.

How can we expect anything else from Campbell? This is the same head coach who called for three two-point conversion attempts down 20-19 against Cowboys, one after a penalty pushed his offense back five yards. He's aggressive, so don't think for a second that the Lions will take their foot off the gas pedal on Sunday.

Gagnon followed the majority with this pick, but he has his reasons to back the Lions at home where they average 30.6 points per game.

"I took the Lions because most of my colleagues did, and I'm trying to ensure my victory for the 2023 season. JK! Or am I? I mean, it works out well, but I couldn't make a pick I didn't believe in, and the Lions should take care of business here. Minnesota's quarterback situation is messy, and the Vikings, who have lost three in a row, were particularly lame in a Week 17 home loss to the Packers. I'm not sure they'll have much left in them here."

Predictions

Davenport: Lions

Gagnon: Lions

Hanford: Lions

Knox: Lions

Moton: Lions

O'Donnell: Lions

Sobleski: Lions

ATS Consensus: Lions -3.5

SU Consensus: Lions

Score Prediction: Lions 28, Vikings 24

The Cleveland Browns have locked into the No. 5 seed, and they'll give several starters an off week before the playoffs, which explains why the Cincinnati Bengals are favored by six.

Since Week 12, the Bengals have started backup quarterback Jake Browning in place of Joe Burrow, who underwent season-ending surgery on his wrist. As a fill-in starter, the former has put together a decent showing, throwing for 1,780 yards, nine touchdowns and six interceptions in eight games (six starts).

Sobleski believes Browning and the Bengals will wrap up the 2023 campaign on a high note while the Browns look toward the playoffs.

"The Browns clinched a playoff berth last weekend, with little to play for during Week 18," Sobleski noted. "As a result, head coach Kevin Stefanski already stated the staff plans to rest some of its players instead of trotting them out to play the Bengals and risk injury.

"Cleveland is clearly a better team than Cincinnati. But the Bengals can still capture a winning season and enter the offseason with a little positivity. This season hasn't gone as expected for the organization. So, it's far more important for Zac Taylor's crew to come out of this contest with a victory than its AFC North counterpart."

Predictions

Davenport: Bengals

Gagnon: Bengals

Hanford: Browns

Knox: Bengals

Moton: Bengals

O'Donnell: Bengals

Sobleski: Bengals

ATS Consensus: Bengals -6

SU Consensus: Bengals

Score Prediction: Bengals 23, Browns 15

If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose to the Carolina Panthers, the winner of this game would claim the NFC South title. So, we won't see backups in spot-start duty in this contest.

The Saints and Falcons seem evenly matched with different flaws.

Atlanta's quarterbacks have struggled with turnovers amid the team's scoring droughts. The Saints pass defense has allowed an average of 308.5 yards over the last two weeks. For the season, New Orleans ranks 21st in rushing yards allowed per game.

Knox sided with the Saints, but he's a bit nervous about their run defense.

"If this line was even a little larger, I'd have to back the Falcons here. Atlanta can lean on Bijan Robinson and the ground game when it needs to, and the Saints defense is susceptible to the run. The Falcons rushed for 228 yards in the first meeting, recording a nine-point victory in the process.

"However, I just don't trust either of Atlanta's quarterbacks at this point. Both were liabilities in the Falcons' 37-17 loss to the Chicago Bears last week. While New Orleans' defense isn't playing quite as well as Chicago's is right now, the Saints can force mistakes in bunches.

"In a close game that could determine the NFC South—depending on what the Buccaneers do against Carolina—I'll trust the home team to win by three or more."

Predictions

Davenport: Falcons

Gagnon: Saints

Hanford: Saints

Knox: Saints

Moton: Saints

O'Donnell: Saints

Sobleski: Saints

ATS Consensus: Saints -3

SU Consensus: Saints

Score Prediction: Saints 26, Falcons 20

We know that Robert Saleh will remain the New York Jets head coach for the 2024 term, but we don't know about New England Patriots lead skipper Bill Belichick's future.

With his tenure potentially on shaky ground, Belichick likely wants to walk off the field as a winner against a team that he's routinely beaten during his time in New England.

Moton doesn't see a scenario in which the Jets break the Belichick spell in an upset at Gillette Stadium.

"In what could be Bill Belichick's last game as the head coach of the Patriots, he's not going to finish the season as a loser at home," Moton said. "His New England teams have dominated the Jets for nearly a decade, winning 15 consecutive meetings going back to the 2015 campaign.

"The Patriots are one of the worst teams in the league, but they clearly have Gang Green's number, and that won't change in their home season finale. Trevor Siemian throws a pick-six in back-to-back outings, which will allow New England to keep its streak against the Jets alive with a win by a touchdown."

Predictions

Davenport: Patriots

Gagnon: Patriots

Hanford: Patriots

Knox: Patriots

Moton: Patriots

O'Donnell: Patriots

Sobleski: Jets

ATS Consensus: Patriots -2.5

SU Consensus: Patriots

Score Prediction: Patriots 20, Jets 14

Though the Philadelphia Eagles have lost leverage to the Dallas Cowboys for the NFC East title, head coach Nick Sirianni hasn't come to a conclusion on his plan for the starters.

As losers in four of their last five outings, the Eagles look out of sync on both sides of the ball, which influenced two of our panelists to believe that Big Blue can cover the spread in a matchup with Philadelphia for the second time in three weeks.

On the other hand, O'Donnell believes the Eagles will throttle the Giants in a tune-up for the playoffs.

"The Eagles need to treat the regular-season finale like a playoff game. The NFC East title may elude them even with a win, but finding their rhythm heading into the postseason is of paramount importance. Running through, over and around the rival Giants is exactly what they need.

"The Giants won't lay down, but less than a touchdown is more than manageable to cover for the Eagles."

Predictions

Davenport: Eagles

Gagnon: Eagles

Hanford: Eagles

Knox: Giants

Moton: Giants

O'Donnell: Eagles

Sobleski: Eagles

ATS Consensus: Eagles -5.5

SU Consensus: Eagles

Score Prediction: Eagles 28, Giants 21

The Chicago Bears don't have a pathway to the playoffs, but quarterback Justin Fields may be in an audition for other teams as his squad ponders what to do with the No. 1 overall pick.

Since his Week 11 return from a thumb injury, Fields hasn't thrown for a ton of yards and only has one passing touchdown in each of his previous four outings, but the Bears have won four of their last six games with him under center. In that same month-and-a-half stretch, Chicago allowed an average of 17.8 points per game.

Despite the Bears' resurgent play, Hanford has faith in Jordan Love's ability to lead Green Bay to a victory by more than a field goal.

"At what point do we just admit Jordan Love is playing really well?" Hanford asked.

"Since Week 11, he has thrown for 16 touchdowns and only one interception and just won the NFC Offensive Player of the Week award after a rout over the Vikings.

"Justin Fields has done his part to make Chicago's decision about his future more and more difficult, but give me the team with something to play for here. Love shows up on the big stage, and the Packers win to clinch a playoff berth."

Predictions

Davenport: Bears

Gagnon: Packers

Hanford: Packers

Knox: Bears

Moton: Bears

O'Donnell: Packers

Sobleski: Bears

ATS Consensus: Bears +3

SU Consensus: Packers

Score Prediction: Packers 21, Bears 20

The Dallas Cowboys can claim the NFC East title and the No. 2 seed with a victory over the Washington Commanders.

Though the Cowboys average nearly 16 more points at home than they do on the road, our crew came to a consensus in favor of Dallas because of the postseason implications in play.

The Cowboys should come out with a lot of urgency, which may be too much for the Commanders to handle early in the game.

Gagnon envisions a Cowboys blowout because of the Commanders' porous defense.

"Dallas crushes teams. We saw it when the Cowboys nailed Washington by 35 points earlier this season and in seven other 20-plus-point Dallas victories outside of that one. But it's been a few weeks since a good old Cowboys blowout. They're due, and they need it here. Look for them to feast on a familiar division rival that has just one win since mid-October and sports the league's lowest-ranked scoring defense."

Predictions

Davenport: Commanders

Gagnon: Cowboys

Hanford: Cowboys

Knox: Cowboys

Moton: Cowboys

O'Donnell: Cowboys

Sobleski: Commanders

ATS Consensus: Cowboys -13

SU Consensus: Cowboys

Score Prediction: Cowboys 38, Commanders 20

We're going to see San Francisco 49ers quarterback Sam Darnold duel with Los Angeles Rams signal-caller Carson Wentz, which tells you about the priorities for both clubs. The 49ers and Rams have clinched playoff berths and decided to give their key players a rest.

With that said, the Rams will keep wide receiver Puka Nacua active as he pushes to break the rookie record for most receiving yards in a season. He needs 29 receiving yards to top former Houston Oilers wideout Bill Groman in the record books.

Moton seems sure that Wentz will help Nacua break the rookie record as he auditions for other teams.

"Los Angeles and San Francisco will rest starters for this game, but Rams quarterback Carson Wentz can use this outing to garner interest on the free-agent market in the offseason," Moton said.

"Wentz hasn't thrown a regular-season pass this year, so this game, albeit against backups, is his opportunity to show he's still a serviceable signal-caller at this level. For at least a short period, Wentz will have Puka Nacua on the field before the wideout breaks a 63-year-old record.

"Moreover, the Rams can avoid a fall from No. 6 to No. 7 in seeding with a win. Consequently, Los Angeles' backups may play with a little more urgency in this contest. The 49ers have already locked up the No. 1 spot in the NFC.

"Rams win their seventh game in eight weeks to maintain their sizzle heading into the postseason."

Predictions

Davenport: Rams

Gagnon: Rams

Hanford: Rams

Knox: Rams

Moton: Rams

O'Donnell: Rams

Sobleski: Rams

ATS Consensus: Rams +3.5

SU Consensus: Rams

Score Prediction: Rams 23, 49ers 21

This matchup won't impact the playoff picture. The Kansas City Chiefs will go into the postseason as the No. 3 seed in the AFC, and the Los Angeles Chargers fell out of playoff contention weeks ago.

The Chiefs will trot out backup quarterback Blaine Gabbert in place of Patrick Mahomes, and Easton Stick is set to make his fourth consecutive start for Justin Herbert, who underwent season-ending finger surgery.

No one on this panel has a clue how this game turns out, but most of our experts sided with an Andy Reid-coached squad over a club with an interim head coach (Giff Smith).

With that said, Davenport took the Chargers over the Chiefs' "scrubs."

"True story. A buddy of mine (and diehard Chiefs fan) won an all-expense paid trip to L.A. in August that includes a VIP tour of SoFi Stadium and tickets to the Week 18 game between the Chiefs and Chargers--a game that now features Easton 'Someone Please Hit Me With A' Stick and Blaine 'Real American' Gabbert. Click on that link. Watch the video. It's absolutely worth it.

"That's like winning front-row seats to a Snoop Dogg concert and then finding out the day before the show that Vanilla Ice has taken his place.

"The Chargers are holding wide receiver tryouts in the stadium parking lot. The Chiefs are locked into the No. 3 seed in the AFC and will be rolling out a parade of scrubs. This is for all intents a preseason game—so I'm laying three points because banging my head into my desk is fun for me."

Predictions

Davenport: Chargers

Gagnon: Chiefs

Hanford: Chiefs

Knox: Chiefs

Moton: Chargers

O'Donnell: Chiefs

Sobleski: Chiefs

ATS Consensus: Chiefs +3

SU Consensus: Chiefs

Score Prediction: Chiefs 20, Chargers 17

In Week 17, the Seattle Seahawks lost control of their playoff destiny in a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now, they need the Chicago Bears to beat the Green Bay Packers to keep the No. 7 seed up for grabs.

Coming off a 35-31 win over the Philadelphia Eagles, the Arizona Cardinals proved they're capable of pulling off an upset, and three of our experts sided with them to cover the spread in this matchup.

Yet the Seahawks got the nod for the consensus pick with Davenport getting the final call to settle an even split.

"With the Packers playing in the 4 p.m. ET window, Seattle will at least start this game with a chance to make the playoffs. That chance would be a lot better had the Seahawks not lost five of seven because the run defense started acting like 11 Anatidaephobics trying to tackle a goose (and they said that Word of the Day toilet paper was a waste of money).

"That defense remains a problem, and the Cardinals just stunned the Eagles in Philadelphia. But you have to think a Seahawks team with a shot at the postseason will bring its A game, and the Redbirds are still a 4-12 team. Lay the points on the road."

Predictions

Davenport: Seahawks

Gagnon: Seahawks

Hanford: Cardinals

Knox: Cardinals

Moton: Seahawks

O'Donnell: Cardinals

Sobleski: Seahawks

ATS Consensus: Seahawks -2.5

SU Consensus: Seahawks

Score Prediction: Seahawks 28, Cardinals 24

The Las Vegas Raiders can potentially solidify interim head coach Antonio Pierce's future with a victory on Sunday.

In two months, Pierce turned a demoralized 3-5 Raiders team into a confident squad that played with a notable swagger.

Even though the Silver and Black will finish the season with a losing record, Moton believes the players and their coach will celebrate a turnaround with Pierce who's in the mix to become the club's full-time head coach.

"On behalf of the players' locker room, Davante Adams has publicly voiced his support for interim head coach Antonio Pierce to get the full-time job, and they can help boost his resume with a win on Sunday," Moton said.

"On Pierce's watch, the Raiders have a 4-4 record. With a victory, he can sell his winning record to owner Mark Davis as a big reason he deserves the full-time position. The players likely understand the importance of this game for their head coach, which is why this isn't a 'meaningless game' for them, though neither of these teams is in playoff contention.

"By the way, rookie quarterback Aidan O'Connell connected with Adams on 13 completions for 126 yards and two touchdowns last week. Adams has two 101-plus-yard receiving performances and three touchdown catches (one from wideout Jakobi Meyers) in the last three weeks.

"The Raiders will pound the ball on the ground against the Broncos' 31st-ranked run defense, and Adams puts the finishing touches on a win in Las Vegas."

Predictions

Davenport: Raiders

Gagnon: Raiders

Hanford: Raiders

Knox: Raiders

Moton: Raiders

O'Donnell: Raiders

Sobleski: Raiders

ATS Consensus: Raiders -2.5

SU Consensus: Raiders

Score Prediction: Raiders 24, Broncos 20

The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins will battle for the AFC East title.

The Dolphins have already clinched a playoff spot, but the Bills could be in an all-or-nothing playoff scenario by the time these teams kick off for Sunday Night Football.

Currently the No. 6 seed, the Bills would climb up to the No. 2 spot with a victory, but they could miss the playoffs with a loss and if the Jacksonville Jaguars and Pittsburgh Steelers win their games.

Over the last two weeks, Buffalo has played in close contests with the Los Angeles Chargers (5-11) and New England Patriots (4-12), but our experts think the threat of missing the postseason will wake up a sleeping giant.

In a boat with his fishing line in the middle of Lake Erie, O'Donnell stuck with his Super Bowl pick to win outright and cover by more than a field goal.

"It wasn't long ago we were casting our last hopeful line into Lake Erie for the Bills' playoff (and Super Bowl, yeah, Super Bowl) hopes. But the walleye are still biting, folks. Winners of four straight, the AFC East title is back in Buffalo's reach. That's not the ultimate goal for Josh Allen and Co., but it certainly wouldn't hurt to host a postseason game in Buffalo.

"The Dolphins have been a fun watch most of the season, but they've proved to be ill-equipped for big games or good teams. They're also battling a squall of injuries. The boat is gassed up, and I'm staying on the water as long as the wins keep hitting the deck. I don't expect to stop until I unhook the Lombardi Trophy from my line."

Predictions

Davenport: Dolphins

Gagnon: Bills

Hanford: Bills

Knox: Bills

Moton: Bills

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Bills

ATS Consensus: Bills -3

SU Consensus: Bills

Score Prediction: Bills 33, Dolphins 27

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